Thursday, November 18, 2004
The Player Watchability Factor
Everybody out there is rating players with Value Over Replacement Player, Win Shares, Runs Created Above Average, etc. Sure, I could throw those numbers around, but they don't really help with the most important part of baseball. So I am introducing the Player Watchability Factor (PFW). I feel this will help determine a player's true value. Below are the criteria:
ONFIELD
- Defense
i. Hustle – Dives for grounders up the middle? Prevents extra bases?
ii. Agility – Scoops balls out of the dirt? Throws on the run?
iii. Catcher – Self-explanatory
iv. Awareness – Spatially as well as situationally
v. Defensive Stance – Always ready or picking flowers?
vi. Pitching Face – Nobody looks good while pitching, but some don’t look terrible. - Offense
i. Hustle - Always goes for the extra base? Runs out infield grounders? Goes hard into 2nd? Reckless or judicious?
ii. Batting Stance/Face – Repetitive nervous ticks? Sticks ass out? Off-balance? Grimace? Knowing smile? Sneer?
iii. Power & Average - Chicks dig the long ball. But we also dig seeing boys wiggle leading off of first. This one’s tough.
iv. Line Drive v. Fly Ball – You pop up, you do push-ups.
v. Chatty – Friendly banter or bitching?
vi. Selflessness – Advances the runner? Pads own stats? - Dugout/Clubhouse
i. Press Conferences – Coherent?
ii. Quotes – Witty or stupid?
iii. Chatty – Silly? Headcase? Loner?
iv. Fights – With teammates or for teammates?
OFF FIELD
- Personal Hygiene
- Commercials (local)
- Commercials (national)
- Commercials (MLB)
- Dress
- Rumors
- Awards
Methodology:
Each criterion was given a point value for the "average" player. For example, every player starts off with five points for Offensive Hustle. If a player regularly gets thrown out trying to take an extra base, he will lose points. If he regularly runs out infield grounders, he adds points, up to double the given average. If a player is a goofball in the dugout, more points, if he sits on the bench between at-bats and sulks, fewer points (Leon would get a zero in 3.iii but a 6 in 3.ii). Additionally, two categories are all or nothing: 5 points for being a catcher, 5 points for not looking like you’re being attacked by a lion while pitching.
Every player starts off with 110 points. If somehow, there was a magical player who could both pitch and catch (I’m not including Cody McKay because he is NOT magical), the most possible points would be 210. Theoretically, a player could have a total of zero, but unless he’s a zombie, it’ll never happen.
Take for example…oh, let’s say Jim Edmonds. We all know about his up-to-now quantifiable offense, and we’ve all seen him play center. But is he really Watchable? (Starting Averages in parenthesis)
ON FIELD
- Defense
i. Hustle (5) I’d say about 90% of the time, yes. 9 points
ii. Agility (7) For a 34 year-old, Jimmy’s pretty limber. 12 points.
iii. Catcher? (5/0) No. 0 points.
iv. Awareness (4) Again, he has his moments, but yeah. 7 points.
v. Defensive Stance (6) He leans over nicely. 11 points.
vi. Pitching Face (5/0) No. 0 points. - Offense
i. Hustle (5) He also runs nicely. 7 points.
ii. Batting Stance/Face (6) Jim gets extra points here because of his swing. Unfortunately, they’re negated by his tendency to stand in the box like he’s at a cocktail party at least once a game. Plus, he doesn’t really have a "Batting Face" unless you count playing with his contacts. 9 points.
iii. Power & Average (6) Jim doesn’t GIDP much. But he strikes out a lot. 10 points.
iv. Line Drive v. Fly Ball (3) How about both? 6 points.
v. Chatty (3) Jimmy’s very chatty. He talks to the catcher, umpire, first baseman. Or, he bitches to the catcher, umpire, first baseman. 3 points.
vi. Selflessness (7) This is a big one. If a player is willing to sacrifice an at-bat, his body, or his pride-mmmmm. 12 points. - Dugout/Clubhouse
i. Press Conferences (4) You know, I can’t remember, so I’m gonna guess. 4 points.
ii. Quotes (4) I don’t think Jimmy’s the sharpest tool in the shed. Nice, but not so bright. 4 points.
iii. Chatty (4) I can’t remember seeing him goof around that much, but it’s always nice to see him smile. 4 points.
iv. Fights (3) Let’s look at 7/19/04: HBP twice, took his bases without saying a word. He’ll backup teammates. 4 points.
OFF FIELD
- Personal Hygiene (8) Sometimes Jim doesn’t shave (in a lovely Indiana Jones way) and he no longer highlights his hair. He wears a half-shirt. 13 points.
- Commercials - local (4) Nope. 0 points
- Commercials – national (5) Nope. 0 points.
- Commercials - MLB (5) Yep. And he looked gooood. 10 points.
- Dress (5) Aside from the terrible, terrible half-shirt incident (my corneas are still recovering), not too bad. 7 points.
- Rumors (3) Oh, there are some juicy rumors about our guy Jimmy. 6 points.
- Awards (3) Bling is good. 5 points.
Jim Edmonds gets a total of 137 points. Sounds pretty good, but to put this into some sort of context we have to compare him to other players. Let’s take National League MVP Barry Bonds. We know how they compare in traditional statistics. And I will be objective.
ONFIELD
- Defense
i. Hustle (5) Errr, not so much. 4 points.
ii. Agility (7) Ummm, not so much. 6 points.
iii. Catcher? (5/0) No. 0 points.
iv. Awareness (4) He’s been around long enough. 7 points.
v. Defensive Stance (6) Too bulky. 8 points.
vi. Pitching Face (5/0) No. 0 points. - Offense
i. Hustle (5) When he wants. 6 points.
ii. Batting Stance/Face (6) Easy swing. Looks pissed. Not pleasing. 8 points.
iii. Power & Average (6) Duh. 12 points.
iv. Line Drive v. Fly Ball (3) Duh. 6 points.
v. Chatty (3) I suppose he says stuff to catchers when he’s being walked, but it’s probably not nice. 3 points.
vi. Selflessness (7) Nope. 4 points. - Dugout/Clubhouse
i. Press Conferences (4) Surly. But does smile. 4 points.
ii. Quotes (4) The good ones are self-serving and sometimes mean. 3 points.
iii. Chatty (4) Not terribly. 4 points.
iv. Fights (3) Fights with teammates in the dugout. 0 points.
OFF FIELD
- Personal Hygiene (8) Bad jewelry choices, but otherwise good. 14 points.
- Commercials - local (4) Doesn’t he have a thing where they can’t use his image? 0 points
- Commercials – national (5) See 2. 0 points.
- Commercials - MLB (5) See 2. 0 points.
- Dress (5) I think he’d look quite nice in a well-tailored suit. 7 points.
- Rumors (3) Yes. Bad rumors. 0 points.
- Awards (3) More bling is better. 6 points.
So PumpkinHead ends up with 113 points, mainly on the strength of homeruns and cleanliness. Let’s try someone else. How about Bo Hart (using 2003)?
ON FIELD
- Defense
i. Hustle (5) Yep. 8 points.
ii. Agility (7) Not too bad. 8 points.
iii. Catcher? (5/0) No. 0 points.
iv. Awareness (4) He was a rookie. 4 points.
v. Defensive Stance (6) He, too, leans over nicely. 10 points.
vi.Pitching Face (5/0) No. 0 points. - Offense
i. Hustle (5) Yep. 8 points.
ii. Batting Stance/Face (6) He was so damn excited. No batting gloves=man’s man. 8 points.
iii. Power & Average (6) Not great. 8 points.
iv. Line Drive v. Fly Ball (3) Meh. 3 points.
v. Chatty (3) Again, very excitable young man. 4 points.
vi. Selflessness (7) When he could. 9 points. - Dugout/Clubhouse
i. Press Conferences (4) Don’t think he had any. 0 points.
ii. Quotes (4) Cliches, but entertaining. 5 points.
iii. Chatty (4) Yeah. 6 points.
iv. Fights (3) Can’t recall. 3 points.
OFF FIELD
- Personal Hygiene (8) Very All-American. 10 points.
- Commercials - local (4) Nope. 0 points
- Commercials – national (5) I’m cheating here. ESPN loved him. 2 points.
- Commercials - MLB (5) Nope. 0 points.
- Dress (5) Very minor leagues. 4 points.
- Rumors (3) None. 3 points.
- Awards (3) Only fan signs. No bling. 0 points.
Hart gets 103 points. Here we are limited by the curse of every statistician: small sample size. Hart's a cutie, and fan favorites are more Watchable, but it can only take them so far.
I hope this tool can be used to settle the age-old bar debate: Who’s Hotter? Throughout the off season, I hope to get to current Cards as well as anyone we sign or trade for. By the end of Spring Training we will know who is, in fact, the hottest Cardinal.
